PMN Daily Video Brief: Fed Holds, Iran Strikes, Oil Bet Fades

New Chair Kevin Warsh vows unwavering commitment to inflation target amid rising oil prices from US-Iran tensions

Lloyd's List reports 52% week-on-week decline in vessel transits as war risk premiums surge and dark shipping increases.

The July 27 opener was postponed, condensing the series into consecutive games on July 28 and July 29 at Great American Ball Park.

Polymarket traders assign a 61 percent probability that Bitcoin will touch $62,000 between July 27 and August 2.

Polymarket traders now assign a 3.85% probability to Bitcoin touching $62,500 in July, down sharply from 8% a day ago.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision on July 29 adds a critical catalyst for Bitcoin's slim 9.5% chance of hitting $67,500 by month's end.

Markets see a low chance of a novel policy announcement, betting Trump will deliver standard campaign rhetoric.

Political pressure for a Senate vote on the digital asset bill intensifies as the practical August deadline approaches.

With only two trading days left in July, WTI futures remain stuck in the low $80s, making a $90 spike highly unlikely.

Oil has swung between $69 and $77 in July, making the 44.5% chance of a $75 print a finely balanced bet.

WTI crude futures remain near $72 a barrel, leaving a $23 gap to the $95 threshold with only days left in July.

The attack came as a June ceasefire remained collapsed and negotiations stalled, deepening the conflict.

The exchange of fire raised fears of a broader regional war as the UN called for both sides to de-escalate.

President Trump confirmed the halt at Iran's request and warned of stronger action if negotiations collapse.

Early reviews place the film in the low 90s, but prediction markets see only a 13% chance the score settles above a key threshold.

With the counting window ending Thursday, Polymarket traders see just a 2.6% chance that Elon Musk posts 220-239 times on X.

Polymarket bettors now see a 29.8% chance that Musk will post 260-279 tweets this week, up from 8.9% on Friday.

Finnish and Azerbaijani champions meet at Väre Areena on Tuesday after Sabah’s narrow first-leg victory in Baku.

Markets price a near-certain victory for Lando Norris after he secured pole position at the Hungaroring on Saturday.

Markets assign minimal odds to a veteran-minimum scenario despite speculation about farewell-tour streaming revenue offsetting a voluntary pay cut.

Anthropic has released three Opus versions in 2026, and prediction markets now see a near-certain chance the next one will exceed the 1510 threshold.

Prediction markets give the chipmaker a 29.5% chance of reclaiming the world's most valuable company title by July 31.